Charles’s first warning forecast – Sunday August 7th

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Chances for rain will remain in the scattered category for most of Big Bend and South Georgia on Sunday — and into the new work week.

A mid to upper level low was off the southeast coast of the United States on Sunday morning and is expected to move west through the area over the next two days. This will help push the chance of rain a bit higher than normal with odds as high as 70% on Monday. The chance of rain will be 60% Sunday and Tuesday. High temperatures will range from near 90s on the coast to lower 90s inland.

The chance of rain will rebound to between 50% and 60% for the remainder of the work week through next Saturday. Guidance patterns continued to hint at a large-scale low pressure trough aloft to deepen across the southeastern United States as early as Thursday. The final tracks have the “dip” itself remaining northeast of Big Bend and South Georgia, but disturbances along the trough and eastern edge of the ridge will help keep the chance of rain high. For now, the chance of rain will remain at least 50%.

In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring a tropical surge off the coast of Africa that has the potential to build over the next five days. These odds were 40%.

August begins what some in the meteorological community have called the “Cape Verde season”. This refers to the Cape Verde Islands (also known as Cape Verde) located over 300 miles west of the west coast of Africa in the Atlantic. Beginning in August, sea surface temperatures generally become warm enough to support the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones (Kimball and Mulekar, 2004). This “season” tends to last until September, which is the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season. The quiet start to the season compared to the previous two years shouldn’t mean he won’t be active for the rest of this year.

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