Met Office’s exact date for ‘potential heatwave’ in August

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It has been a fairly miserable and unsettled few weeks for Yorkshire and the Humber with frequent storms bringing rain and thunder to the region.

The changeable conditions are set to remain for much of August with the possibility of more thundery showers on the horizon according to the Met Office.

There is hope in the long term forecast however that more settled spells late in the month could mean a mini heatwave – and just in time for the Bank Holiday weekend.

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The Met Office outlook for August 23 to September 6 states: “Although confidence is very low through this period, a general trend towards more settled conditions is likely.

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It was even busier half a mile down the coast

“Somewhat unsettled and changeable conditions are most likely to remain in place at the start of the period, with these looking to give way to more settled, drier conditions by the end.

“Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the potential for hotter weather later in the month.”

This outlook gives some hope that the 2021 August Bank Holiday weekend, which runs from August 27-30, may well be a hot one.

The BBC outlook has a similar message of hope with the forecast from August 23 to September 5predicting: “High pressure is anticipated to arrive at some point in late August, and once it moves in, we should enjoy some more summer-like weather for a time.

“The high will be an extension of the sub-tropical high that lingers near the Azores through summer, so it will bring in some warmer air and sunnier skies.

“As it sits overhead for a few days, temperatures should quickly climb above average. This final week of August brings the best chances for high pressure and with it a slight risk of a heat wave.

“It’s still a bit difficult to pin down the heat chances at the moment, largely due to the persistent inconsistencies in the computer models for this time frame.”

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Because of the lack of confidence in the computer modeling for September, the BBC are leaning on historical analogues for guidance.

To do this they look at previous years which saw similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe to what is observed now.

They say that in the spring and summer months, some unusually warm waters in the North Pacific and North Atlantic have been proving to be a useful tool which support more low pressure systems and a more active storm track for the first month of meteorological autumn.

They said: “We are anticipating that high pressure later this month will not tend to linger, but rather shift away after around a week or so and allow lows to return from the northwest.

“September is likely to see more cooler, wetter weather develop, but the timing of the high’s departure is the biggest uncertainty. There is around a 35 per cent risk that the high remains into early September, bringing increased risks of a late-summer heat wave. “

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