New forms of tropical depression could quickly strengthen in Tropical Storm Victor

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In this image taken on Wednesday, September 29, 2021, Tropical Depression 20 has been seen off the coast of Africa in the eastern Atlantic. (CIRA to Colorado State / GOES East)

The most recent tropical depression of the 2021 hurricane season developed over the eastern Atlantic on Wednesday morning, and AccuWeather meteorologists say it’s only a matter of time before it turns into a tropical storm.

With 19 named depressions and systems so far, this feature has been referred to as Tropical Depression 20. The next name on the growing list of tropical storm names for the Atlantic hurricane season 2021 is Victor.

Tropical Depression 20 was located a few hundred kilometers south of the Cabo Verde Islands in late morning Wednesday.

Conditions will be favorable for strengthening over the next two days, and the low is expected to turn into Tropical Storm Victor later Wednesday, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Randy Adkins.

“A brief window will exist for the storm to later turn into a hurricane, but increased windshear and drier air will likely reverse this trend with a gradual loss of wind intensity likely to occur later this week. -end in the next week, “Adkins said. “As it stands, this storm will not pose a direct threat to the land, although residents of the Azores should closely monitor the progress of this system,” Adkins said.

Since the system has grown enough to produce sustained winds of around 35 mph, the National Hurricane Center has designated it as a tropical depression. For the system to be declared a tropical storm, sustained winds must reach 39 mph.

Forecasters expect south to southwest trending breezes to form over the central Atlantic near Tropical Depression 20. These breezes will curve the system northward over the east-central part of the basin and well. away from the Caribbean islands, Bermuda and North America from this weekend until next week.

The newly formed low is one of two areas of weather disturbance forecasters have been monitoring over the eastern Atlantic.

A few hundred miles further west of the low and several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, another area of ​​disturbed weather, also known as a tropical wave, looked poorly organized on Wednesday. The delay in the organization can prevent this more western tropical wave from evolving into tropical depression and storm.

The lack of development so far is significant for the Leeward and Windward Islands as this feature further west was more likely to reach the islands early or mid-next week. Developmental delay can increase wind shear close to the winds and winds to totally disrupt the development of the storm.

“A large area of ​​windshear is expected to intensify this week and persist in the wake of Hurricane Sam“said Bernie Rayno, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather. In this case, strong breezes will develop and develop from the west and southwest to mid-level atmospheric levels.

“This windshear belt will stretch from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean to the central Atlantic and will likely be at its peak this weekend,” Rayno added. Any tropical feature that tries to form or move within the belt of the windshear zone is likely to struggle.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, besides Sam, which was once rock seems to have missed his chance to rearrange. A slight swirl of clouds southwest of Peter will be monitored for the organization, but wind shear may prevent any strong development of this disturbance.

The Caribbean area off the Atlantic coast of the United States could be a source of problems over the next week.

There are early indications that one or more areas of low pressure may expand from the Caribbean to the Bahamas and possibly as far north as the Carolina coast next week. There is potential for a tropical system to evolve in this vast area of ​​low pressure, and the region will need to be monitored. Persistent or changing wind shear can act as a deterrent to rapid development.

The area just off the southeastern coast of the United States all the way to the Bahamas may be the most likely place for a system to organize.

“A planned dive to the south of the jet stream over the eastern United States can pick up any low in the southwestern part of the Atlantic Basin and guide it north next week, and there is a chance the low center could take on some tropical features, ”said Adkins. However, if the stream jet does not capture this low center, assuming it develops first, then conditions may become more favorable for tropical development by the following weekend.

Regardless of tropical development in the southwestern portion of the Atlantic Basin, a large area of ​​unstable weather can evolve with areas of cloud, rain and thunderstorms from the Caribbean to the Bahamas and the eastern part of the United States and the United States. coastal waters.

With the likelihood of Victor forming in the Southeast Atlantic this week, Wanda remains the only name on the shortlist for 2021. The hurricane season in the Atlantic does not end until November 30.

Once Wanda is trained, forecasters will use a additional list prepared by the World Meteorological Organization for naming systems. The list will replace the Greek alphabet, which was used to name storms amid two hyperactive seasons in the past: 2020 and 2005.

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